The Northern Territory government recently announced the Dolphins, the NRL's newest team that entered the league in 2023, would play a home game at TIO Stadium in Darwin every year from 2026 to 2028.

The Dolphins deal replaces a 12-year partnership between the NT and the Parramatta Eels, which ran from 2014 to 2025.

The NRL announcement came soon after the AFL's Gold Coast played two "home" games at TIO Stadium during Sir Doug Nicholls Round, which is dedicated to Indigenous players, cultures and communities.

Looking ahead, Darwin will be the only capital city in Australia without an AFL or NRL team when the Tasmania Devils join the AFL in 2028 as its 19th team. The NT is, however, pushing hard to join as the AFL's 20th club.

So, as the NRL dips its toes into the NT, will the AFL look to defend its territory?

The "footy case" for a standalone NT team is strong: the Territory has produced rich reservoirs of football talent from Alice Springs to the Arafura Sea, with stars such as Michael Long, the Rioli family (Maurice Snr, Cyril, Dean, Daniel, Willie and Maurice Jnr) and Andrew McLeod dominating games and delighting fans.

According to James Coventry's book Footballistics, the NT shines in terms of participation rates. Only about 250,000 people live in the Top End, but more than 13% participate in Aussie rules programs compared to 8% in Western Australia, 6% in South Australia and 2% in Victoria. In terms of girls and women, the Territory boasts the highest Aussie rules participation rate in the country.

The NT has traditionally been a strong source of AFL draftees, producing more per capita than any other state or territory except for Victoria and South Australia. Around 10% of AFL players are Indigenous, with many emanating from the NT.

But in recent years, Indigenous numbers have declined. In 2024, 70 men and 21 women players identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander - a decrease of 17% since 2020.

Read more: It's clear footy has an Indigenous participation problem, and the AFL draft is only part of the solution

An NT team would surely be a boon for Indigenous players who want to stay local.

In the NRL, about 12% of players identify as Indigenous, although only a handful come from the NT.

The Territory AFL Team Taskforce, in its strategic business case for the 20th licence, has examined a number of options.

These include current AFL clubs playing more matches in Darwin and Alice Springs, a relocated club, or a Darwin-based standalone NT team that also plays in Alice Springs.

The taskforce has also considered a northern Australia team (Darwin based but also playing in Cairns), although that is a less likely option at this stage given it would be hard to have two home grounds so far apart, along with the need to play some games in Alice Springs.

The NT plan also includes an AFLW team and possibly a reserves team in second tier competitions such as the Victorian Football League (VFL) or maybe even the South Australian National Football League (SANFL) or West Australian Football League (WAFL).

Of course, that's the footy case. The economic case is much more complex.

A standalone NT team would need significant financial assistance from the AFL and governments to be successful.

The AFL distributes its profits among its clubs, with smaller teams receiving a greater share as part of its equalisation aims.

Even with a significant AFL contribution of A$7.83 million per year, the taskforce forecasted an NT club would need the federal and NT government to fund an operation funding gap of $18.89 million annually.

This would include a new or upgraded stadium, which would "anchor the opportunity to bid for a 20th licence," according to AFL NT chairman Sean Bowden.

The taskforce noted:

The economic benefit to the NT could be as much as $559 million if the new club was provided with a new stadium. An AFL team would create 160 full-time jobs, bring game day activation of the economy and add $116 million a year in economic output to the Territory economy.

Hand in hand with the economic benefits come the social impacts.

The NT has serious problems with diabetes and associated health problems, education and imprisonment.

The taskforce has committed to develop pathways for elite AFL and AFLW footballers and also create a safety net of social programs for all Territorians under the umbrella of the NT AFL team.

The taskforce stated having elite pro sports teams could inspire Indigenous children, particularly in remote communities.

As the NRL continues to make its presence felt in the NT, the AFL faces a big decision as the Territory pushes for a standalone team.

The prospect of Australia's only indigenous game boasting teams from Tasmania to the Top End, and from the east coast to the west coast in every capital city, would no doubt warm the hearts of all football supporters.

It might also be too much for the AFL, as custodians of the great Australian game, to resist.